Anthony L. Westerling Sierra Nevada Research Institute University of California, Merced 5200 N. Lake Road Merced, CA 95343 Ph: (209) 756-8793 Fx: (209) 228-4047 email: anthony dot westerling at me dot com Home Climate Links Affiliations Publications Presentations CV (pdf) Fire Data R Software Lab Forecasts	Justin Bailie Photography

San Francisco Chronicle: Climate change could fuel spread of wildfires.

Cal-Adapt: Potential Changes in Wildfire Regimes in California Press Release Google and the State of California present a prototype website that features some of our climate change impact scenarios for wildfire in California. Google Earth 5 application and plug-in required.

Thomson Scientific: Fast-breaking Paper in the Geosciences PODCAST (MP3) (WMA)

NPR Science Friday: Does Global Warming Increase Forest Fires?

ABC News: What's Fanning Wildfires?

Recruitment Graduate Students in the Environmental Systems Graduate Group. I am looking for more Graduate Research Assistants interested in research in applied climatology.

Affiliations UC Merced Associate Professor of Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Cognitive and Information Sciences, School of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts Sierra Nevada Research Institute Environmental Systems Graduate Group Scripps Institution of Oceanography Principle Investigator, California Applications Program & California Climate Change Center, USDA Forest Service Sierra Nevada Research Center, Pacific Southwest Research Station

Publications (click for pdf file) (YEARE indicates expected publication year) (Name indicates student at time of authorship)

Westerling, Turner, Smithwick, Romme, Ryan 2011: "Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st Century" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, in press. Published on July 25, 2011. Westerling, Bryant, Preisler, Holmes, Hidalgo, Das, and Shrestha: "Climate Change and Growth Scenarios for California Wildfire" Climatic Change, in review. Preisler, H.K., A.L. Westerling, K. M. Gebert, F. Munoz-Arriola, T. Holmes 2011: "Spatially explicit forecasts of large wildland fire probability and suppression costs for California" International Journal of Wildland Fire, 20, 508-517. Westerling, A. L., T. Barnett, A. Gershunov, A. Hamlet, D. Lettenmaier, N. Lu, E. Rosenberg, A. Steinemann: "Climate Forecasts for Improving Management of Energy and Hydropower Resources in the Western U.S." Public Interest Energy Research, California Energy Commision. , Sacramento, CA. in press. Hamlet, A.F., A.L. Westerling, T.P. Barnett, and D.P. Lettenmaier: "Effects of changing 20th century precipitation variability on annual streamflow and regional hydropower resources in the Western U.S.," in revision. Westerling, A. L. 2009: "Wildfires," Chapter 8 in Climate Change Science and Policy, Schneider, Mastrandrea, Rosencranz, Kuntz-Duriseti Eds., Island Press. published 12/14/2009. (google books) (color pre-publication draft) A. L. Westerling, B. P. Bryant, H. K. Preisler, T.P. Holmes, H. G. Hidalgo, T. Das, S.R. Shrestha 2009: "Climate Change, Growth and California Wildfire" Public Interest Energy Research, California Energy Commision, Sacramento, CA. Bryant, B. P. and A. L. Westerling 2009: "Potential Effects of Climate Change on Residential Wildfire Risk in California" Public Interest Energy Research, California Energy Commision, Sacramento, CA. Spracklen, D. V., L. J. Mickley, J. A. Logan, R. C. Hudman, R. Yevich, M. D. Flannigan, A. L. Westerling 2009: "Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States," Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D20301. doi:10.10292/008JD010966. Westerling, A. L. 2009: "Los incendios en el oeste de los EEUU y el cambio climatico" Chapter 2 in Prevencion de los Desastres Ambientales: Una reflexion critica, Ruiz de Elvira, Ed. Spanish translation, orignially published in Gallega as Westerling, A. L., 2007: "Os incendios no oeste dos EEUU e o cambio climatico" (see link below). Littell, J.S., D. McKenzie, D.L. Peterson, A. L. Westerling 2009: "Climate and Ecoprovince Fire Area Burned in Western U.S. Ecoprovinces, 1916-2003," Ecological Applications, 19(4): 1003-1021. Westerling, A.L., H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, T.W. Swetnam: "Warming and Earlier Spring Increases Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity" republished with commentary in Science Magazine's State of the Planet 2008-2009. Island Press. Donald Kennedy, Ed. ISBN 1-59726-405-9. Pub. Date: 12/18/2008 Jaffe, D., D. Chand, W. Hafner, A. L. Westerling, D. V. Spracklen 2008: "Influence of Wildfires on O3 Concentrations in the Western United States," Environmental Science and Technology, 42(16), 5885-5891, DOI:10.1021/es800084k. Westerling, A. L., 2008: "Climatology for Wildfire Management," Chapter 6 in Economics of Forest Disturbance: Wildfires, Storms, and Pests, Series: Forestry Sciences, Vol 79. T.P. Holmes, J.P. Prestemon and K.L. Abt, Eds., XIV, 422 p. Springer. ISBN: 978-1-4020-4369-7 Holmes, T. P., R. J. Hugget and A. L. Westerling, 2008: "Statistical Analysis of Large Wildfires," Chapter 4 Economics of Forest Disturbance: Wildfires, Storms, and Pests, Series: Forestry Sciences, Vol 79. T.P. Holmes, J.P. Prestemon and K.L. Abt, Eds., XIV, 422 p. Springer. ISBN: 978-1-4020-4369-7 Westerling, A. L., 2008: "Climate and Wildfire in the Western United States," California Applications Program White Paper, Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography. NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment Program. Preisler, H. K., S. C. Chen, F. Fujioka, J. W. Benoit, A. L. Westerling, 2008: "Meteorological Model Applications for Estimating Probabilities of Wildland Fires," International Journal of Wildland Fire, 17:305-316. DOI: 10.1071/WF06162 * published version available from CSIRO * or pdf available on request * Corringham, T., A. L. Westerling, B. Morehouse 2008: "Exploring Use of Climate Information in Wildland Fire Management: A Decision Calendar Study, "Journal of Forestry, 106(2): 71-77. * or pdf available on request * Jaffe, D., W. Hafner, D. Chand, A. L. Westerling, D. V. Spracklen 2008: "Interannual Variations in Wildfire PM2.5 in the Western United States," Environmental Science and Technology, 42: 2812-2818. DOI:10.1021/es702755v Westerling, A. L. and B. P. Bryant, 2008: "Climate Change and Wildfire in California," Climatic Change, 87: s231-249. DOI:10.1007/s10584-007-9363-z. Westerling, A. L., 2007: "Os incendios no oeste dos EEUU e o cambio climatico" Chapter 2 in Prevendo os Desastres Ambientais: Unha reflexion critica, Ruiz de Elvira, Ed. Monographias 06: Escola Galega de Administracion Publica, Santiago de Compostela, Galicia. ISBN 9788445344309. Spracklen, D. V., J. A. Logan, L. J. Mickley, R. J. Park, R. Yevich, A. L. Westerling, and D. Jaffe 2007: "Wildfires drive interannual variability of organic carbon aerosol in the western U.S. in summer," Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16816. DOI:10.1029/2007GL030037. Preisler, H.K., and A.L. Westerling 2007: "Statistical Model for Forecasting Monthly Large Wildfire Events in the Western United States" Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 46(7): 1020-1030. DOI: 10.1175/JAM2513.1 Shachat, J., and A.L. Westerling 2006: "Information Aggregation in a Catastrophe Futures Market," Managerial and Decision Economics, 27: 477-495. DOI: 10.1002/mde.1283 Westerling, A.L., H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, T.W. Swetnam 2006: "Warming and Earlier Spring Increases Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity" Science, 313: 940-943. DOI:10.1126/science.1128834 * Online supplement * Westerling, A.L. and B.P. Bryant 2006: "Climate Change and Wildfire In and Around California: Fire Modeling and Loss Modeling," Public Interest Energy Research, California Energy Commision. CEC-500-2005-190-SF, Sacramento, CA. Corringham, T.W., A.L. Westerling B.J. Morehouse, 2006: 'Exploring Use of Climate Information in Wildland Fire Management: A Decision Calendar Study', In: Aguirre-Bravo, C.; Pellicane, Patrick J.; Burns, Denver P.; and Draggan, Sidney, Eds. 2006. Monitoring Science and Technology Symposium: Unifying Knowledge for Sustainability in the Western Hemisphere Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 603-613 Preisler, H.K., and A.L. Westerling 2005: "Estimating Risk Probabilities for Wildland Fires," Proceedings of the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings, Minneapolis, MN. Westerling, A.L., D.R. Cayan, T.J. Brown, B.L. Hall and L.G. Riddle 2004: "Climate, Santa Ana Winds and Autumn Wildfires in Southern California," EOS, 85(31): 289,296. Brown, T.J., B.L. Hall and A.L. Westerling 2004: "The Impact of Twenty-first Century Climate Change on Wildland Fire Danger in the Western United States: An Applications Perspective," Climatic Change, 62: 365-388. Dettinger, M.D., D.R. Cayan, N.K. Knowles, A.L. Westerling, M.K. Tyree, 2004: "Recent Projections of 21st-Century Climate Change and Watershed Responses in the Sierra Nevada. USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-193. Conference proceeding for the Sierra Nevada Science Symposium, Oct 7-10, 2002, Kings Beach, California. Westerling, A.L. and T.W. Swetnam 2003: "Interannual to Decadal Drought and Wildfire in the Western United States," EOS, 84(49): 545,554-5. Westerling, A.L., A. Gershunov and D.R. Cayan, 2003: "Statistical Forecasts of the 2003 Western Wildfire Season Using Canonical Correlation Analysis," Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 12(1,2). Westerling, A.L., T.J. Brown, A. Gershunov, D.R. Cayan and M.D. Dettinger, 2003: "Climate and Wildfire in the Western United States," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84(5) 595-604. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-84-5-595 Westerling, A.L., A. Gershunov, D.R. Cayan and T.P. Barnett, 2002: "Long Lead Statistical Forecasts of Western U.S. Wildfire Area Burned," International Journal of Wildland Fire, 11(3,4) 257-266. DOI: 10.1071/WF02009 Westerling, A.L., A. Gershunov and D.R. Cayan, 2001: "Statistical Forecasts of Western Wildfire Season Severity," Proceedings of the 4th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Reno, Nevada, November 2001, pp 202-205. Westerling, A.L., D.R. Cayan, A. Gershunov, M. D. Dettinger and T. J. Brown, 2001: "Statistical Forecast of the 2001 Western Wildfire Season Using Principal Components Regression," Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 10:71-75. Westerling, A.L., 1992: "Climate Change and Chinese Energy Policy," Journal of Public and International Affairs, 3:71-90.

Education
Ph.D.	Economics and International Affairs, January 2000 Joint Degree of the Department of Economics and the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego. Fields: Environmental Economics, Insurance, Applied Econometrics, Comparative Policy Analysis.
B.A.	International Economics/Chinese Studies, December 1987 Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles. Fields: International Economics, Development Economics, Finance, Chinese Studies.

Professional Experience

Associate Professor - Environmental Engineering and Geography, University of California, Merced, 2010 - Present. Assistant Professor - Environmental Engineering and Geography, University of California, Merced, 2006 - 2010. Assistant Project Scientist - California Applications Program and the California Climate Change Center, Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, 2004 - 2006. Supported by NOAA's Office of Global Programs, the California Energy Commission, and the USDA Forest Service. Postgraduate Research Meteorologist - California Applications Program, Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, 2000 - 2004. Supported by NOAA's Office of Global Programs, the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative, and the USDA Forest Service. Instructor - IRPS Pre-Academic Program, International Career Associates Program, UCSD, Summer 1997 & 1998. Visiting Researcher - Young Scientist Summer Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, Summer 1996. Staff Research Associate - California Environmental Technology Center, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, 1994 - 95. Prevention Effectiveness Summer Intern - Air Pollution and Respiratory Health Branch, Division of Environmental Hazards and Health Effects, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, Summer 1993. Graduate Student Researcher - Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego, 1992 - 97. PI: Dr. Gordon J. MacDonald. Assistant General Manager and Associate Editor - Journal of Environment & Development, La Jolla, California, 1991 - 93. Research Associate - Economic Analysis Corporation, Century City, California, 1989 - 90. English Instructor - Hangzhou University of Commerce, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, People's Republic of China, 1988 - 89. State Department Summer Intern - Office of Land Transport and Maritime Affairs, Bureau of Economics, U.S. State Department, Washington, D.C., Summer 1987.

Last update: 7 November 2007